Can We Make Money off of Investors’ Limited Attention?
- Steve Crawford, Wesley Gray (me!), and Shastri Sandy
- A version of the paper can be found here.
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The limited attention hypothesis suggests that investors’ limited cognitive resources affect securities markets. We explore predictions from the limited attention hypothesis in the context of firms participating in NYSE’s Opening and Closing Bell ceremonies. In contrast to prior research, our unique experimental design allows us to more easily differentiate information shocks from attention shocks. We have two new findings: 1) Institutional investors are affected by limited attention and 2) limited attention has little influences on asset prices.
NYSE, CRSP/COMPUSTAT, SEC
This is a paper I have been working on recently. My original hope was that the anecdote above was more systematic–it would be great to systematically earn a few percentage points trading around Bell events. Unfortunately, the plural of anecdote is data, and the data have spoken: the market is very efficient. There might be small trading opportunities associated with Opening Bell events (32bps in abnormal return after the Bell), firms with no previous Bell appearence (22bps), firms with no analyst following (25bps), or for firms that simply celebrate their listing (72bps in abnormal return). All in all, there is a lot more evidence that traders like to churn stocks when they are highlighted at a Bell Ceremony, but there is little evidence that the “smart money” allows prices to drift too far from fundamentals before trading against investors with limited attention.
If you’ve got interesting datasets or concepts you want us to test out, please send them along.
Thoughts on the paper? Or any experiences trading NYSE Bell stocks?
Would love to hear from traders…