
Minimum 40% NYSE Size Breakpoint (~$1.4B as of December 31, 2011), annually rebalanced (June 30), Market-cap weighted, January 1, 1974 to December 31, 2011.
EQV=Quantitative Value System
MF=Magic Formula System
S&P 500 TR=Standard and Poors 500 Total Return
MW_INDEX=NYSE/AMEX/NASDAQ Value-Weight Index Total Return
STA = Scaled Total Accruals = (CA (t) – CL (t) – DEP (t)) / Total Assets (t)
- CA = Change in current assets – change in cash & equivalents
- CL = Change in current liabilities – change in LT debt included in current liabilities – change in income taxes payable
- DEP = depreciation and amortization expense.
SNOA = (Operating Assets (t) – Operating Liabilities (t)) / Total Assets (t),
Calculate variables:
- DSRI = Days’ Sales in Receivables Index
- GMI = Gross Margin Index
- AQI = Asset Quality Index
- SGI = Sales Growth Index
- DEPI = Depreciation Index
- SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
- LVGI = Leverage Index
- TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets
Calculate probit probability of manipulation (PROBM) values:
PROBM = -4.84 + 0.92*DSRI + 0.528*GMI+0.404*AQI + 0.892*SGI + 0.115*DEPI – 0.172*SGAI + 4.679*TATA – 0.327*LVGI
- NIMTAAVG = weighted average (quarter’s Net income/MTA)
- MTA = Market value of total assets = book value of liabilities +market cap.
- TLMTA = Total liabilities / MTA
- CASHMTA = cash & equivalents / MTA
- EXRETAVG = weighted average(log(1+stock’s return)-log(1+S&P 500 TR return)
- SIGMA = annualized stock’s standard deviation over the previous 3 months (daily)
- RSIZE = log (stock market cap / S&P 500 TR total market value)
- MB = MTA / adjusted book value
- Adjusted book value=book value+.1*(market cap-book value)
- PRICE = Log (recent stock price), capped at $15, so a stock with a stock price of $20, would be given a value of log(15) instead of log(20).
Calculate logit for the probability of financial distress (LPFD) values:
- LPFD = -20.26*NIMTAAVG + 1.42*TLMTA – 7.13*EXRETAVG + 1.41*SIGMA – .045*RSIZE – 2.13*CASHMTA+.075*MB – .058*PRICE -9.16
Simultaneously conduct the following screens:
- Eliminate all firms in the top 5 percent of the sample based on Accrual Screens.
- Eliminate all firms in the top 5 percent of the sample based on the Manipulation Screen.
- Eliminate all firms in the top 5 percent of the sample based on the Financial Distress Screen.
Screen Universe for cheapest EBIT/TEV firms (Top 10%)
8yr_ROA = Eight-Year Return on Assets (Geometric Average).
- Return on Assets = Net Income Before Extraordinary Items (t) / Total Assets (t).
- P_8yr_ROA = percentile (8yr ROA) among all stocks in the universe.
8yr_ROC = Eight-Year Return on Capital (Geometric Average).
- Return on Capital = EBIT (t) / Invested Capital (t)
- P_8yr_ROC = percentile (8yr ROA) among all stocks in the universe.
FCFA = Long Term Free Cash Flow on Assets
- Sum (Eight-year FCF) / Total Assets (t)
- P_CFOA = percentile (FCFA) among all stocks in the universe.
MG = Margin Growth
- Eight-year Gross Margin Growth (geometric average)
- P_MG = percentile (MG) among all stocks in the universe.
MS = Margin Stability
- Eight-year Average Gross Margin % / Eight-year Gross Margin % Standard Deviation
- P_MS = percentile (MS) among all firms in the universe.
MM = Margin Max
Current Profitability
- ROA = Return on Assets
- F_ROA = 1 if ROA > 0, 0 otherwise
- FCFTA = Free Cash Flow (t) / Total Assets (t)
- F_FCFTA = 1 if FCFTA > 0, 0 otherwise
- ACCRUAL = FCFTA – ROA
- F_ACCRUAL = 1 if ACCRUAL > 0, 0 otherwise
Stability
- DEBT = Long Term Debt (t-1) / Total Assets (t-1) – Long Term Debt (t) / Total Assets (t)
- F_DEBT = 1 if DEBT > 0, 0 otherwise
- CR = Current Ratio (t) – Current Ratio (t-1)
- F_CR = 1 if CR > 0, 0 otherwise
- NEQISS = Net Equity Issuance from t-1 to t
- F_NEQISS = 1 if NEQISS > 0, 0 otherwise
Recent Operational Improvements
- ΔROA = Year-over-year change in ROA
- F_ΔROA = 1 if ΔROA > 0, 0 otherwise
- ΔFCFTA= Year-over-year change in FCFTA
- F_ΔFCFTA = 1 if ΔFCFTA > 0, 0 otherwise
- ΔMARGIN = Year-over-year change in gross margin
- F_ΔMARGIN= 1 if ΔMARGIN > 0, 0 otherwise
- ΔTURN = Year-over-year change in asset turnover
- F_ΔTURN = 1 if ΔTURN > 0, 0 otherwise
***Note: This is different than the 9-point Piotroski F-Score.
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